夏国涵: 欧洲的未来，在于欧亚一体化！

夏国涵，国观智库特约研究员，国际关系学院讲师。

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从区域层面看，英国脱欧引发的矛盾已在欧洲爆发。加之受到全球贸易战影响，欧洲的战略决策将变得越发不确定。

从全球来看，世界格局正在经历历史性结构变化，逐渐形成中美两极化格局。欧盟和欧元区可利用自身优势组成第三极群，从而限制超级大国并从双方中受益。

面对新一轮的领土和海洋权利竞争，欧洲必须以新的地缘战略地位参与欧亚一体化。随着中国“一带一路”的提出，以互联的“世界岛”为中心的世界已经开始形成。 在这张新地图中，欧亚大陆是“世界岛”的主要地缘政治板块。 

Europe’s future lies in Eurasian Integration

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a recent interview that the old certainties of the postwar order no longer apply and Europe must reposition itself to stand up to the challenges posed by China, Russia and the US. Merkel's remarks reflect Germany's insecurity and strategic confusion as it confronts internal and external situations.

At the regional level, triggered by Brexit, internal contradictions of the EU have broken out. First, within the EU, the balance of power will be altered by Britain's departure. This will result in a leadership struggle between Germany and France, with the focus shifting from the economy to security.

Second, after populist parties seize power in countries like Italy and Austria, Euroskepticism will be revived. Member states' inclination to separate from the EU will grow stronger. Under the circumstances, it is more difficult for the EU to carry out reforms.

Third, influenced by the Trump administration's "America First" policy and its unilateral global trade war, the EU's strategic decision will become more uncertain. It is possible that the US will impose tariffs on European automobiles, or use Nord Stream 2 as an excuse to slap sanctions on the EU, smearing EU-Russia relations. The US is also likely to launch military action against Iran, which may bring geopolitical disaster to the Middle East. All of the above will seriously affect the overall security of the EU.

At the global level, the world order is undergoing historic structural changes. Although Europe does have advantages, its lack of strategic sensitivity may prevent it from making strategic adjustments in time. First, after the Cold War, the world pattern has seen a change from unipolarity to bipolarity. In the future, the world will become multi-polarized with the US and China retaining primacy. In the unipolar system, non-hegemonic countries tended to become appendages of the hegemonic power, while in the bipolar system, they would form a third pole group under the guidance of nonalignment, so as to restrict the superpowers and benefit from both sides. The EU and Eurozone have a third pole group nature and this can be taken advantage of. That's why French President Emmanuel Macron repeatedly advocated Europe's security independence and called for a European army which apparently would weaken NATO's role.

Moreover, facing a new round of competition for territorial and maritime rights, Europe has to get involved in the Eurasian integration with a new geo-strategic position. The old geopolitical barriers have gradually been removed by technology development. And with the promotion of the China-proposed BRI, a world centered on the interconnected "World Island" has begun to take shape. 

Such trends conform to the advancement of human civilization. In this new map, Eurasia serves as the main geopolitical plate in the "World Island," with Southeast Asia, Australia, Africa and the Arctic being the four sub-geographical plates. The American Continent acts as an extraterritorial partner. 

In terms of civilization, Europe detaches from Asia. However, geographically, Europe is a sub-region in western Eurasia. Europe and China encompass areas that are contiguous to both land and sea. Whether Europe's maritime strategy of "Atlantic Alliance" will evolve into the sea-land strategy of connecting Europe and Asia will have a profound impact on its future strategic choices.

Last, the battle to lead the fourth industrial revolution has begun. The US' relentless suppression of Huawei's 5G is a typical example. The first and second industrial revolutions made Britain an empire "on which the sun never sets." America's rise as the world's hegemon was attributed to the second and third industrial revolutions. Similarly, those who grasp the historical opportunity of the fourth industrial revolution are very likely to become the leading force in the 21st century. 

Different from the previous three industrial revolutions featuring a single technology breakthrough, the fourth industrial revolution will be driven by a series of new technologies and their application to markets, such as clean energy, new materials, life engineering, artificial intelligence, new connectivity (5G, internet of everything). Even if the US can independently lead the technological innovation in the fourth industrial revolution, it will fail to be the major market for commercial applications of new technologies due to its limited population. 

The first industrial revolution saw millions of people working in factories. The second industrial revolution involved tens of millions, the third hundreds of millions and now the fourth industrial revolution will affect billions of people. Correspondingly, a larger market is needed to absorb technology consumer products. Only an interconnected World Island can meet the above requirements.

In the race of the new industrial revolution, the EU lags behind China and the US, at least in 5G communication. If the EU can't lead in technical standards, it is supposed to actively participate in Eurasian integration to build the future market. The EU has to decide.

来源：Global Times, 察哈尔学会

文章仅代表作者观点，图片来自网络

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国观智库成立于2013年，是中国最知名的独立智库之一。国观智库始终坚持“行知·致远”的发展理念，用知行合一、行稳致远的态度和实践致力于中国的安全、繁荣和稳定，研究领域聚焦于海洋战略与蓝色经济、边疆治理与全球反恐、”一带一路"与境外投资。